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Updated: Aug 27, 2025
Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Geriatric Early-Stage Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Patients in Low-risk Population: Omitting Chemotherapy Based on
Chen Zhou1, Li Xu1, Zhenggui Du1
1Department of Breast Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China; Clinical Research Center for Breast Diseases, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Background:
Considering old age and comorbidities, the actual benefit of chemotherapy in older patients with early triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) remains uncertain. We aimed to select appropriate patients who could avoid chemotherapy in this population.
Methods:
A total of 6482 patients more than 65 years old with T1-2N0-1M0 TNBC in 2010-2015 were extracted from SEER program. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent factors associated with chemotherapy usage. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier plots and log-rank tests. Independent prognostic factors were identified by multivariate Cox analysis. A nomogram predicting breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and a risk stratification model were constructed.
Results:
A total of 3379 (52.13%) patients received chemotherapy while 3103 (47.87%) did not. Age, married status, grade, T-stage, N-stage, radiation and breast-conserving surgery (BCS) were significantly associated with chemotherapy usage (all P < .05). Chemotherapy significantly improved OS (HR = 0.606, P < .001) and BCSS (HR = 0.763, P = .006) in the entire population. A nomogram was built by incorporating independent risk factors (age, T-stage, N-stage, grade and radiation). Based on the score of the nomogram, the risk stratification model demonstrated that chemotherapy improved OS (P < .001) and BCSS (P < .001) of patients in the high-risk group (score >180), but not in the low-risk group (score ≤75).
Conclusion:
Chemotherapy is beneficial for geriatric patients with T1-2N0-1M0 TNBC in this study, and the risk stratification model indicates the feasibility of sparing chemotherapy in low-risk subgroup without sacrificing survival, providing clinicians tools to weigh the risk-benefit of chemotherapy and customize the individualized treatment accordingly.
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