Self-reported walking pace, polygenic risk scores and risk of coronary artery disease in UK biobank
F Zaccardi1, I R Timmins2, J Goldney3
1Leicester Real World Evidence Unit, University of Leicester, Leicester General Hospital, Gwendolen Rd, Leicester, LE5 4PW, UK; Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester General Hospital, Gwendolen Rd, Leicester, LE5 4PW, UK.
Insights
Combining polygenic risk scores (PGS) and walking pace significantly improves cardiovascular disease risk prediction. Slow walkers with high genetic risk face the greatest coronary artery disease (CAD) risk, highlighting a key group for interventions.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Disease Research
- Genetics and Public Health
Background:
- Polygenic risk scores (PGS) and self-reported walking pace are known predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD).
- The combined predictive power of PGS and walking pace for CVD risk differentiation was previously unknown.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether combining polygenic risk scores (PGS) and self-reported walking pace enhances the prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) risk.
- To assess the 10-year absolute risk of CAD in individuals based on their genetic risk and walking pace.
Main Methods:
- Utilized UK Biobank data from 380,693 participants (Mar 2006-Feb 2021).
- Estimated 10-year absolute CAD risk and C-index using nine PGS and self-reported walking pace, adjusted for traditional risk factors.
- Analyzed CAD events over a median follow-up of 11.9 years.
Main Results:
- Both walking pace and genetic risk were strongly associated with CAD.
- Slow walkers with high genetic risk exhibited the highest 10-year CAD risk (2.72% in women, 9.60% in men).
- Combining PGS and walking pace yielded the greatest risk discrimination (C-index 0.801 in women, 0.732 in men).
Conclusions:
- Self-reported slow walking pace combined with high genetic risk identifies individuals at substantially elevated risk for coronary artery disease (CAD).
- Both polygenic risk scores and walking pace independently contribute to cardiovascular risk prediction.
- The combination of these factors offers the most effective approach for risk stratification and potential intervention targeting.
Background And Aims:
Both polygenic risk scores (PGS) and self-reported walking pace have been shown to predict cardiovascular disease; whether combining both factors produces greater risk differentiation is, however, unknown.
Methods And Results:
We estimated the 10-year absolute risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), adjusted for traditional risk factors, and the C-index across nine PGS and self-reported walking pace in UK Biobank study participants between Mar/2006-Feb/2021. In 380,693 individuals (54.8% women), over a median (5th, 95th percentile) of 11.9 (8.3, 13.4) years, 2,603 (1.2%) CAD events occurred in women and 8,259 (4.8%) in men. Both walking pace and genetic risk were strongly associated with CAD. The absolute 10-year risk of CAD was highest in slow walkers at high genetic risk (top 20% of PGS): 2.72% (95% CI: 2.30-3.13) in women; 9.60% (8.62-10.57) in men. The risk difference between slow and brisk walkers was greater at higher [1.26% (0.81-1.71) in women; 3.63% (2.58-4.67) in men] than lower [0.76% (0.59-0.93) and 2.37% (1.96-2.78), respectively] genetic risk. Brisk walkers at high genetic risk had equivalent (women) or higher (men) risk than slow walkers at moderate-to-low genetic risk (bottom 80% of PGS). When added to a model containing traditional risk factors, both factors separately improved risk discrimination; combining them resulted in the greatest discrimination: C-index of 0.801 (0.793-0.808) in women; 0.732 (0.728-0.737) in men.
Conclusion:
Self-reported slow walkers at high genetic risk had the greatest risk of CAD, identifying a potentially important population for intervention. Both PGS and walking pace contributed to risk discrimination.
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