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Global natural projections
Michele Catalano1,2, Emilia Pezzolla1
1Prometeia, Piazza Trento e Trieste 3, 40122 Bologna, Italy.
Empirica
|September 27, 2022
Summary
This study models long-term economic trends, finding declining interest rates linked to labor markets and capital obsolescence. Economic integration predicts shifts in global power, impacting US growth and benefiting China and Europe.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Econometrics
- Global Economics
Background:
- Debate on natural interest rates and potential growth rates.
- Need for long-term projections of major economies.
- Understanding factors influencing economic decline.
Purpose of the Study:
- Model long-run economic changes in significant economies.
- Analyze the roles of demographics, technology, and globalization.
- Investigate drivers of declining natural interest rates.
Main Methods:
- General equilibrium overlapping generation model.
- Construction of a human capital index using UN data.
- Estimation of an increasing returns production function.
Main Results:
- Declining interest rates explained by labor dynamics and capital obsolescence.
- Reduced labor income share counteracts empirical evidence on interest rates.
- Economic integration predicts global imbalance adjustments and shifts in economic power.
Conclusions:
- Demographic decline negatively impacts European growth.
- Globalization changes pose risks to US growth but benefit Europe and China.
- Projected US growth weakness between 2030-2040 due to economic integration.
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