Socio-ecological gap analysis to forecast species range contractions for conservation

Area of Science:

• Conservation Biology
• Spatial Ecology
• Biodiversity Science

Background:

• Effective conservation planning necessitates robust needs assessments and prioritization schemes.
• Traditional range maps often lack crucial data on population and spatial variation, hindering accurate biodiversity assessments.
• Existing gap analyses primarily focus on protected area coverage, overlooking broader socio-ecological factors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To integrate spatially explicit threat and resource layers to identify conservation capacity gaps for 91 African carnivore species.
• To move beyond traditional gap analyses by incorporating socio-ecological factors into conservation planning.
• To inform decision-making and resource allocation for inclusive carnivore conservation.

Main Methods:

• Aggregated threat layers (drought, human pressures) and resource layers (protected areas, cultural diversity) across carnivore ranges.
• Developed a socio-ecological gap analysis model to quantify available conservation capacity (ACC).
• Analyzed ACC across 91 African carnivore species, considering body size and taxonomy.

Main Results:

• All analyzed species face potential range contraction, with an average predicted loss of 15% of their range.
• Available conservation capacity (ACC) varied significantly based on species' body size and taxonomic group.
• Findings challenged current extinction risk perceptions for 'Least Concern' species and provided insights for 'Data Deficient' species.

Conclusions:

• The socio-ecological gap analysis provides a novel geospatial approach to guide conservation investments and strategies.
• Understanding ACC dynamics is vital for forecasting species' range shifts in response to environmental and social changes.
• This framework supports proactive mitigation of human-wildlife conflict and promotes equitable carnivore conservation globally.