SARS-COV-ATE risk assessment model for arterial thromboembolism in COVID-19

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Infectious Diseases
• Public Health

Background:

• SARS-CoV-2 infection significantly elevates the risk of cardiovascular and thrombotic complications.
• COVID-19 is an independent risk factor for acute ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction (MI).
• Effective risk stratification is crucial for managing hospitalized COVID-19 patients prone to arterial thromboembolism (ATE).

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a risk assessment model (RAM) for stratifying hospitalized COVID-19 patients at risk for ATE.
• To identify key clinical and laboratory parameters predictive of ATE in COVID-19 patients.
• To create a practical tool for early identification and management of ATE risk.

Main Methods:

• A multicenter, retrospective study involving adult COVID-19 patients admitted between March 2020 and September 2021.
• Development of a 16-item risk score, named SARS-COV-ATE, based on demographic, clinical, and laboratory data.
• Validation of the model's discrimination and risk stratification capabilities using training and validation cohorts.

Main Results:

• The SARS-COV-ATE model demonstrated good discrimination, with AUCs of 0.777 (training) and 0.766 (validation).
• In the validation cohort, ATE incidence was 2.4% (low-risk), 12.8% (intermediate-risk), and 33.8% (high-risk) based on the score.
• The model incorporates parameters such as age, sex, race, smoking status, blood pressure, creatinine, and specific biomarkers.

Conclusions:

• The novel SARS-COV-ATE risk assessment model effectively identifies hospitalized COVID-19 patients at risk for ATE.
• The 16-item score utilizes standardized, readily available parameters for practical clinical application.
• This tool can aid clinicians in stratifying patients and implementing timely preventive strategies against ATE.