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Developing spatio-temporal approach to predict economic dynamics based on online news.
Yuzhou Zhang1,2, Hua Sun3, Guang Gao3
1Popsmart Technology (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd., Ningbo, 315100, China. zyzjacky88@gmail.com.
Scientific Reports
|September 28, 2022
Summary
Online news data can predict economic dynamics in China. A spatio-temporal analysis using generalized linear models and Geographically Weighted Regression showed online news has potential for economic forecasting.
Area of Science:
- Economic Geography
- Data Science
- Urban Planning
Background:
- Economic forecasting is crucial for government planning and policy implementation.
- Limited research exists on utilizing online news for economic pattern prediction, particularly concerning spatio-temporal dynamics in China.
- Understanding regional economic variations is key to effective policy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore spatio-temporal patterns of economic output values in Yinzhou, Ningbo, China (2018-2021).
- To propose and evaluate generalized linear model (GLM) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) for predicting economic dynamics using online news data.
- To assess the potential of online news as a tool for economic surveillance and forecasting.
Main Methods:
- Spatio-temporal analysis of economic output values.
- Application of generalized linear models (GLM) for economic prediction.
- Implementation of Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to capture local variations in economic dynamics.
- Utilized online news data as a predictor variable.
Main Results:
- Identified significant spatio-temporal variations in economic dynamics within the study area.
- Online news data demonstrated considerable potential for predicting economic dynamics.
- The Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model exhibited superior performance compared to the generalized linear model (GLM).
Conclusions:
- Combining online news data with spatio-temporal approaches offers a promising method for enhanced economic forecasting.
- The findings support the development of an online news-based surveillance system for economic monitoring.
- The proposed spatio-temporal analysis framework can provide valuable insights for government economic planning and policy.
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