On the use of the likelihood ratio test methodology in pharmacovigilance

The safety of medical products due to adverse events (AE) from drugs, therapeutic biologics, and medical devices is a major public health concern worldwide. Likelihood ratio test (LRT) approaches to pharmacovigilance constitute a class of rigorous statistical tools that permit objective identification of AEs of a specific drug and/or a class of drugs cataloged in spontaneous reporting system databases. However, the existing LRT approaches encounter certain theoretical and computational challenges when an underlying Poisson model assumption is violated, including in cases of zero-inflated data. We briefly review existing LRT approaches and propose a novel class of (pseudo-) LRT methods to address these challenges. Our approach uses an alternative parametrization to formulate a unified framework with a common test statistic that can handle both Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models. The proposed framework is computationally efficient, and it reveals deeper insights into the comparative behaviors of the Poisson and the ZIP models for handling AE data. Our extensive simulation studies document notably superior performances of the proposed methods over existing approaches particularly under zero-inflation, both in terms of statistical (eg, much better control of the nominal level and false discovery rate with substantially enhanced power) and computational ( $$ 100-500-fold gains in average running times) performance metrics. An application of our method on the statin drug class from the FDA FAERS database reveals interesting insights on potential AEs. An R package, pvLRT, implementing our methods has been released in the public domain.