Detecting New Sources of Childhood Environmental Lead Exposure Using a Statistical Surveillance System, 2015-2019

Objectives. To design and implement a statistical surveillance system to prospectively identify potential clusters of elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs) in children younger than 6 years in the Denver, Colorado, metro area. Methods. We evaluated the ability of 2 independent statistical surveillance methods to detect synthetic clusters of EBLLs in Denver between 2015 and 2019. Results. Together, the statistical surveillance methods took an average of 9 months to detect the synthetic clusters. This is faster than similar real-world clusters that have been reported in the past. The system was relatively unaffected by changes in the testing rate and to the blood lead reference value. Conclusions. The adequate design of a statistical surveillance system can help increase the rate at which clusters of EBLLs are detected in Denver, but doing so requires an accurate model of the spatial distribution of EBLLs. Earlier detection of clusters can help guide more effective public health interventions at the local level. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(S7):S715-S722. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307009).