Teenagers' perceived and actual probabilities of pregnancy

This study sought to determine how teenagers' actual and perceived probabilities of pregnancy are related. Data were collected from interviews with 425 women aged nineteen or younger who attended the Door, a multiservice center for youth in New York City. Subjects were asked to estimate their likelihood of becoming pregnant the last time they had intercourse, and to indicate the dates of both last intercourse and last menstrual period in order to determine their objective and subjective assessments of risk of pregnancy. It was found that the perceived probability of pregnancy was not highly correlated with actual risk: the distributions of perceived probability of pregnancy were nearly identical for both those who were and were not at actual risk. Moreover, respondents' level of knowledge about the timing of ovulation was not significantly related to the accuracy of their risk assessment. The findings also indicate that teenagers' use of contraception is guided more by their perceived risk of pregnancy than by the actual risk. Policy implications are discussed.