Survival nomogram for different grades of gastric cancer patients based on SEER database and external validation...

Influencing factors varied among gastric cancer (GC) for different differentiation grades which affect the prognosis accordingly. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to effectively identify the overall survival (OS).

Totally, 9,568 patients with GC were obtained from the SEER database as the training cohort and internal validation cohort. We then retrospectively enrolled patients diagnosed with GC to construct the external validation cohort from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University. The prognostic factors were integrated into the multivariate Cox regression to construct a nomogram. To test the accuracy of the model, we used the calibration curves, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, C-index, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Race chemotherapy, tumor size, and other four factors were significantly associated with the prognosis of Grade III GC Patients. On this basis, we developed a nomogram. The discrimination of the nomogram revealed good prognostic accuracy The results of the area under the curve (AUC) calculated by ROC for five-year survival were 0.828 and 0.758 in the training set and external validation cohort, higher than that of the TNM staging system. The calibration plot revealed that the estimated risk was close to the actual risk. DCA also suggested an excellent predictive value of the nomogram. Similar results were obtained in Grade-I and Grade-II GC patients.

The nomogram developed in this study and other findings could help individualize the treatment of GC patients and assist clinicians in their shared decision-making with patients.