Predicting lymph node metastasis and recurrence in patients with early stage colorectal cancer

Tumor budding (TB), a powerful, independent predictor of colorectal cancer (CRC), is important for making appropriate treatment decisions. Currently, TB is assessed only using the tumor bud count (TBC). In this study, we aimed to develop a novel prediction model, which includes different TB features, for lymph node metastasis (LNM) and local recurrence in patients with pT1 CRC. Enrolled patients (n = 354) were stratified into training and validation cohorts. Independent predictors of LNM and recurrence were identified to generate predictive nomograms that were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Seven LNM predictors [gross type, histological grade, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), stroma type, TBC, TB mitosis, and TB CDX2 expression] were identified in the training cohort. LNM, histology grade, LVI, TBC, stroma type, and TB mitosis were independent predictors of recurrence. We constructed an LNM predictive nomogram with a high clinical application value using the DCA. Additionally, a nomogram predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) was constructed. It presented an AUROC value of 0.944 for the training cohort. These models may assist surgeons in making treatment decisions. In the high-risk group, radical surgery with a postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with RFS. Postoperative chemotherapy can be better for high-risk patients with pT1 CRC. We showed that TB features besides TBC play important roles in CRC pathogenesis, and our study provides prognostic information to guide the clinical management of patients with early stage CRC.