Development and validation of a nomogram to predict complications in patients undergoing simultaneous bilateral total...

Complications were significantly increased 30 days after Simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty (SBTKA). In this study, an individualized nomogram was established and validated to predict the complications within 30 days after SBTKA.

The general data of 861 patients (training set) who received SBTKA in The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between January 1, 2012 and March 31, 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients were divided into complication group (n = 96) and non-complication group (n = 765) according to the incidence of complications within 30 years after SBTKA. Independent risk factors for postoperative SBTKA complications were identified and screened by binary logistic regression analyses, and then a nomogram prediction model was constructed using R software. The area under curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were selected to evaluate the line-chart. Meanwhile, 396 patients receiving SBTKA in the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria (test set) were selected to verify the nomogram.

Five independent predictors were identified by binary logistic regression analyses and a nomogram was established. The AUC of this nomogram curve is 0.851 (95% CI: 0.819-0.883) and 0.818 (95% CI: 0.735-0.900) in the training and testing sets, respectively. In the training set and test set, calibration curves show that nomogram prediction results are in good agreement with actual observation results, and DCA shows that nomogram prediction results have good clinical application value.

Older age, lower preoperative hemoglobin level, higher preoperative blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level, longer operation time, ASA grade ≥ III are independent predictors of SBTKA complications within 30 days after surgery. A nomogram containing these five predictors can accurately predict the risk of complications within 30 days after SBTKA.