An agent-based model of social care provision during the early stages of Covid-19

Social care is a frequent topic in UK policy debates, with widespread concern that the country will be unable to face the challenges posed by the increase in demand for social care. While this is a societal problem whose dynamics depends on long-term trends, such as the increase of human lifespans and the drop of birth-rates, a short-term crisis, such as a pandemic, can affect the need and supply of social care to a considerable, although temporary, extent. Building on previous modelling effort of social care provision, we present an agent-based computational model to investigate social care provision in the context of a pandemic (using as an example, the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic), and related mitigation policies, on social care demand and supply, using a proof-of-concept agent-based model (ABM). We show how policy solutions aimed at controlling the pandemic may have substantial effects on the level of unmet social care need and propose that such models may help policymakers to compare alternative containment policies, taking into account their side effects on the social care provision process.