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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Health
  • Climate Change Adaptation
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Climate change necessitates both mitigation and adaptation strategies to address health impacts.
  • Population adaptation is a key determinant of future climate-related health burdens but is often underrepresented in impact studies.
  • Existing studies often overlook the complex interplay of physiological and socioeconomic factors in population adaptation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a methodological framework for assessing temperature-related mortality that incorporates simultaneous adaptation-sensitivity pathways.
  • To analyze the influence of physiological (heat adaptation, cold sensitivity) and socioeconomic pathways on future mortality.
  • To apply the framework to a case study in Bavaria, Germany, using historical mortality data.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a modeling framework using location- and age-specific exposure-response functions.
  • Incorporated future scenarios for cold sensitivity and heat adaptation, varying the slopes of exposure-response functions.
  • Integrated socioeconomic adaptation via gross domestic product projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and considered demographic changes.

Main Results:

  • Projected average temperature increases of 1.1°C (SSP1-2.6) and 4.1°C (SSP3-7.0) by 2099 in Bavaria.
  • Found socioeconomic adaptation to be the primary driver of the adaptable fraction for both total and cardiovascular mortality.
  • Observed the highest adaptable fraction (18.56%) under SSP1-2.6 with socioeconomic and high heat adaptation; cold adaptability was consistently lower than heat adaptability.

Conclusions:

  • The developed framework systematically evaluates adaptation mechanism effectiveness.
  • Socioeconomic adaptation is projected to be crucial in determining future temperature-related excess mortality.
  • Cold sensitivity may exceed heat adaptation in many regions, and population aging will continue to influence future mortality trends.