Spatial distribution, regional differences, and dynamic evolution of the medical and health services supply in China

The imbalance of medical and health services supply (MHSS) is a significant public health concern as regional economic development disparities widen in China. Based on the provincial panel data of medical and health services, this paper constructed an evaluation index system and used the two-stage nested entropy method to measure the MHSS level of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020. Then we used the standard deviation ellipse, Dagum Gini coefficient, β convergence model, kernel density estimation and Markov chain to investigate the spatial distribution, regional differences, and dynamic evolution of MHSS. According to the results of these analysis, the conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) In general, the MHSS level in China showed a significant up-ward trend from 2005 to 2020. However, the MHSS level among different provinces showed a non-equilibrium characteristic. (2) Regional comparison shows that the eastern region had the highest level, and the central region had the lowest level. The eastern and central regions presented polarization, while the western region showed unremarkable gradient effect. (3) During the period, the overall regional differences, intra-regional differences, and inter-regional differences of MHSS level all showed convergence. (4) The economic development, urbanization rate, fiscal self-sufficiency rate, and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on the convergence. (5) The provinces with high levels had the positive spillover effect. The findings of this paper provide theoretical supports for optimizing the allocation of health resources and improving the equity of MHSS.