Shades of doubt: Measuring and classifying vaccination confidence in Europe

The anti-vaccination movement, vaccine hesitancy, and wavering vaccination confidence have increasingly become matters of public interest, in parallel with an increasing normalization of representations of vaccination as risky. In this study, we used data on vaccination beliefs and behaviors from two Eurobarometer surveys to classify attitudes towards vaccination and to discuss comparability, acquiescence, and other measurement issues. Through cluster analysis, we found that individuals in the European Union (EU27) can be classified into five opinion types, differentiating the poles ("vaccine-trusting" and "vaccine-distrusting") from the "hesitant & free choice" cluster and from two relatively uncommitted clusters, the "agreeable" (or acquiescent) and the "fence-sitters." Opinion configurations on vaccination were linked to the broader social structures of age, gender, and educational attainment, to experiences of adult vaccination, and trust in different information sources. We found that trust, distrust, and confusion about vaccination have permeated all social strata in EU countries. The pandemic years have amplified uncertainty concerning vaccine safety and its effectiveness. We also noticed a decrease of trust in the voices of mainstream medical experts during the pandemic period, from about 92 % in 2019 to 73 % in 2021, and a significant increase in people who declared that they "don't know" whom to trust about vaccine information, ranging from 1 % to about 13 %. Measurements of vaccination confidence in Europe should control for acquiescence, through positively and negatively formulated items, and ensure comparability in time. We strongly recommend the inclusion of a battery of critical items in all future European Commission-funded surveys on vaccination to allow the monitoring of European public confidence in vaccination and in the relevant information sources, including trust in pharmaceutical companies; this will provide an avenue for re-establishing a broader confidence among citizens, health authorities, and specialists.