Risk of recipient age on 1-year mortality after simultaneous heart-lung transplantation

Heart-lung transplantation (HLTx) is relatively uncommon, and there is a paucity of literature to suggest an age at which older recipients may be exposed to excess risk for mortality. This analysis aimed to identify a threshold of age that predicts adverse outcomes after HLTx.

The United Network of Organ Sharing registry was used to identify adult patients undergoing HLTx from 2005 to 2021. The primary outcome was 1-year mortality. Threshold regression was used to identify the threshold at which age impacts 1-year mortality. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to model survival, and Cox proportional hazards modeling was used for risk-adjustment.

We identified 453 patients undergoing HLTx. Threshold analysis identified that the risk for 1-year mortality was significantly elevated beyond an age of 58 years, and 47 (10.38%) patients were older than this threshold. On Kaplan-Meier analysis, 1-year survival was significantly lower in patients > 58 years compared to younger recipients (64.7% vs. 82.0%, p = .007). After risk adjustment, the hazard ratio for 1-year mortality in recipients older than 58 years was 2.27 (95% confidence interval [1.21-4.28], p = .011).

A threshold for recipient age of 58 years of age may avoid excess 1-year mortality after HLTx. However, patients older than this threshold demonstrate acceptable early and midterm survival, and the majority survive to 1 year. Advanced age should be considered in patient selection for HLTx, but may not be a contraindication for candidacy particularly in the absence of other risk factors.