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SurviveAI: Long Term Survival Prediction of Cancer Patients Based on Somatic RNA-Seq Expression.

Omri Nayshool1,2, Nitzan Kol1, Elisheva Javaski1

  • 1Bioinformatics Unit, Sheba Cancer Research Center and Wohl Institute for Translational Medicine, Sheba Medical Center, Tel HaShomer, Israel.

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We developed accurate cancer outcome prediction models using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data. These models, validated externally, identify key genes for potential therapeutic targets in renal cancer.

Keywords:
Cancer survivorsclassificationgene expressionmolecular targeted therapysupervised machine learning

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Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Bioinformatics
  • Genomics

Background:

  • Predicting cancer outcomes is crucial for effective treatment planning.
  • Large-scale cancer datasets like The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) offer valuable resources for developing predictive models.
  • External validation is essential to ensure the reliability of prediction models.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate reliable cancer outcome prediction models using TCGA data.
  • To identify key genes and pathways associated with cancer prognosis.
  • To make these prediction models accessible for broader use.

Main Methods:

  • Optimized Random Forest models using parameter grid search and backward feature elimination on 16 TCGA cancer cohorts.
  • Validated models using Clinical Proteomic Tumor Analysis Consortium (CPTAC3) data.
  • Utilized Python SciKit-Learn package and developed a web interface (surviveAI).

Main Results:

  • Five prediction models achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC-ROC) greater than 80%.
  • Specific models for the TCGA-KIRP cohort showed high AUC-ROC values (0.86 for 42 genes, 0.85 for 300 genes).
  • Identified five key genes (DMBT1, IL11, HOXB6, TRIB3, PIM1) common to top models, significant in renal cancer.

Conclusions:

  • The developed prediction models demonstrate high accuracy in predicting cancer outcomes.
  • The identified key genes hold potential as prognostic markers and therapeutic targets for renal cancer.
  • The surviveAI web interface provides accessible tools for cancer outcome prediction.