CA19.9 Response and Tumor Size Predict Recurrence Following Post-neoadjuvant Pancreatectomy in Initially Resectable...

Data on recurrence after post-neoadjuvant pancreatectomy are scant. This study investigated the incidence and pattern of recurrence in patients with initially resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma who received post-neoadjuvant pancreatectomy. Furthermore, preoperative predictors of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and their interactions were determined.

Patients undergoing post-neoadjuvant pancreatectomy at two academic facilities between 2013 and 2017 were analyzed using standard statistics. The possible interplay between preoperative parameters was scrutinized including interaction terms in multivariable Cox models.

Among 315 included patients, 152 (48.3%) were anatomically resectable. The median RFS was 15.7 months, with 1- and 3-year recurrence rates of 41.9% and 74.2%, respectively. Distant recurrence occurred in 83.3% of patients, with lung-only patterns exhibiting the most favorable prognostic outlook. Normal posttreatment CA19.9, ΔCA19.9 (both in patients with normal and elevated baseline levels), and posttreatment tumor size were associated with RFS. Critical thresholds for ΔCA19.9 and tumor size were set at 50% and 20 mm, respectively. Interaction between ΔCA19.9 and posttreatment CA19.9 suggested a significant risk reduction in patients with elevated values when ΔCA19.9 exceeded 50%. Moreover, posttreatment tumor size interacted with posttreatment CA19.9 and ΔCA19.9, suggesting an increased risk in the instance of elevated posttreatment CA19.9 values and a protective effect associated with CA19.9 response in patients with tumor size >20 mm.

Recurrence following post-neoadjuvant pancreatectomy is common. Preoperative tumor size <20 mm, normal posttreatment CA19.9 and ΔCA19.9 > 50% were associated with longer RFS. These variables should not be taken in isolation, as their interaction significantly modulates the recurrence risk.