Preterm labor with intact membranes: a simple noninvasive method to identify patients at risk for intra-amniotic...

To develop a noninvasive scoring system to identify patients at high risk for intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation, which would reduce the need for amniocentesis.

This prospective cohort study comprised patients admitted with preterm labor and intact membranes (20-34 weeks of gestation) who underwent a transabdominal amniocentesis and for whom concentrations of quantitative cervical fetal fibronectin and of maternal serum C-reactive protein (CRP) were determined. Intra-amniotic infection was defined as a positive amniotic fluid culture for microorganisms. Intra-amniotic inflammation was defined as an amniotic fluid matrix metalloproteinase-8 concentration >23 ng/mL. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify intra-amniotic infection/inflammtion with noninvasive parameters that had a significant relationship with univariate analysis. With four parameters identified by multivariate analysis, we generated a noninvasive risk scoring system.

Of the study population consisting of 138 singleton pregnant women, (1) the overall rate of intra-amniotic infection/inflammation was 28.3% (39/138); (2) four parameters were used to develop a noninvasive risk scoring system [i.e. cervical fetal fibronectin concentration (score 0-2), maternal serum CRP concentration (score 0-2), cervical dilatation (score 0-2), and gestational age at presentation (score 0-1)]; the total score ranges from 0 to 7; 3) the area under the curve of the risk score was 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.92-0.99), significantly higher than that of each predictor in the identification of intra-amniotic infection/inflammation (p < .001, for all); 4) the risk score with a cutoff of 4 had a sensitivity of 94.9% (37/39), a specificity of 90.9% (90/99), a positive predictive value of 80.4% (37/46), a negative predictive value of 97.8% (90/92), a positive likelihood ratio of 10.4 (95% CI, 5.6-19.5), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.06 (95% CI, 0.15-0.22) in the identification of intra-amniotic infection/inflammation.

(1) The combination of four parameters (concentrations of cervical fetal fibronectin and maternal serum CRP, cervical dilatation, and gestational age) was independently associated with intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation; and (2) the risk scoring system comprised of the combination of 4 noninvasive parameters was sensitive and specific to identify the patients at risk for intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation.