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Area of Science:

  • Paleoclimatology
  • Vegetation Dynamics
  • Climate Modeling

Background:

  • The rate at which Northern Hemisphere (NH) forest biomes respond to rapid climate warming is poorly understood.
  • Existing regional studies indicate response lags ranging from decades to millennia.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the temporal mismatch between simulated and reconstructed NH forest biome expansion during deglaciation.
  • To identify the drivers behind discrepancies between climate model outputs and paleobotanical evidence.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a transient MPI-ESM1.2 Earth System Model simulation for deglacial periods.
  • Compared simulated vegetation changes with pollen-based biome reconstructions.
  • Validated simulated climate-vegetation response using pollen-independent reconstructions.

Main Results:

  • The simulation showed NH extra-tropical forest expansion occurring approximately 4000 years earlier than indicated by pollen reconstructions.
  • Simulated vegetation responded to climate changes within decades, aligning with pollen-independent data.
  • Climate model biases were excluded as the primary cause for the observed mismatch.

Conclusions:

  • A significant multi-millennial disequilibrium exists between the NH forest biome and climate signals.
  • Pollen-based reconstructions may not accurately capture the pace of biome shifts in paleoclimate studies.
  • NH forests might respond more slowly to current climate change than predicted by Earth System Models.