An overview of the SAMPL8 host-guest binding challenge

The SAMPL series of challenges aim to focus the community on specific modeling challenges, while testing and hopefully driving progress of computational methods to help guide pharmaceutical drug discovery. In this study, we report on the results of the SAMPL8 host-guest blind challenge for predicting absolute binding affinities. SAMPL8 focused on two host-guest datasets, one involving the cucurbituril CB8 (with a series of common drugs of abuse) and another involving two different Gibb deep-cavity cavitands. The latter dataset involved a previously featured deep cavity cavitand (TEMOA) as well as a new variant (TEETOA), both binding to a series of relatively rigid fragment-like guests. Challenge participants employed a reasonably wide variety of methods, though many of these were based on molecular simulations, and predictive accuracy was mixed. As in some previous SAMPL iterations (SAMPL6 and SAMPL7), we found that one approach to achieve greater accuracy was to apply empirical corrections to the binding free energy predictions, taking advantage of prior data on binding to these hosts. Another approach which performed well was a hybrid MD-based approach with reweighting to a force matched QM potential. In the cavitand challenge, an alchemical method using the AMOEBA-polarizable force field achieved the best success with RMSE less than 1 kcal/mol, while another alchemical approach (ATM/GAFF2-AM1BCC/TIP3P/HREM) had RMSE less than 1.75 kcal/mol. The work discussed here also highlights several important lessons; for example, retrospective studies of reference calculations demonstrate the sensitivity of predicted binding free energies to ethyl group sampling and/or guest starting pose, providing guidance to help improve future studies on these systems.