Coffee Yield Stability as a Factor of Food Security

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Food Security Studies

Background:

• Yield fluctuation is a significant risk in agriculture, impacting UN Sustainable Development Goal 2 (food security).
• Climate change exacerbates yield fluctuations, threatening stable coffee supplies and export revenues crucial for food imports in producing countries.
• Minimizing yield fluctuations is vital for ensuring food security and stable farmer incomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze coffee yield stability in major producing countries under rising temperatures.
• To demonstrate the advantages of the Yield Stability Index (YSI) over traditional methods for policy and management decisions.
• To connect yield stability, climate change, and food security.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of coffee yields and zonal temperature data for 12 major coffee-producing countries.
• Application of the Yield Stability Index (YSI) for two periods: 1961-1994 and 1995-2020.
• Comparison of YSI results with traditional stability measurements.

Main Results:

• The YSI identified Indonesia, Honduras, and Mexico as maintaining stable coffee yields.
• Brazil and Vietnam showed considerable improvement in yield stability, a change not captured by traditional measures.
• Significant country-wise variations in environmental vulnerability and adaptability were observed.

Conclusions:

• The Yield Stability Index (YSI) offers a superior approach to assessing agricultural yield stability compared to traditional methods.
• Findings highlight the differential impacts of climate change on coffee production and national food security.
• The study underscores the importance of yield stability for economic resilience and food security in coffee-dependent nations.