Understanding Quality of Pinot Noir Wine: Can Modelling and Machine Learning Pave the Way?

Wine research has as its core components the disciplines of sensory analysis, viticulture, and oenology. Wine quality is an important concept for each of these disciplines, as well as for both wine producers and consumers. Any technique that could help producers to understand the nature of wine quality and how consumers perceive it, will help them to design even more effective marketing strategies. However, predicting a wine's quality presents wine science modelling with a real challenge. We used sample data from Pinot noir wines from different regions of New Zealand to develop a mathematical model that can predict wine quality, and applied dimensional analysis with the Buckingham Pi theorem to determine the mathematical relationship among different chemical and physiochemical compounds. This mathematical model used perceived wine quality indices investigated by wine experts and industry professionals. Afterwards, machine learning algorithms are applied to validate the relevant sensory and chemical concepts. Judgments of wine intrinsic attributes, including overall quality, were made by wine professionals to two sets of 18 Pinot noir wines from New Zealand. This study develops a conceptual and mathematical framework to predict wine quality, and then validated these using a large dataset with machine learning approaches. It is worth noting that the predicted wine quality indices are in good agreement with the wine experts' perceived quality ratings.