Risk of Presenting with Poor-Prognosis Metastatic Cancer in Adolescents and Young Adults: A Population-Based Study

Having metastatic disease at diagnosis poses the great risk of death among AYAs with cancer from all sociodemographic subgroups. This “landscape” study utilized United States Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program data from 2000−2016 to identify subgroups of AYAs at highest risk for presenting with metastases across twelve cancer sites having a poor-prognosis (5-year survival <50% with metastases). Adjusted odds ratios for risk of metastatic disease presentation were compared for AYAs in aggregate and by sociodemographic subgroup (race/ethnicity, sex, socioeconomic status [SES]). In general, AYAs who were male, racial/ethnic minorities, or low SES were at consistently greatest risk of metastases. Strikingly, having metastatic melanoma was independently associated with multiple AYA sociodemographic subgroups, including males (aOR 3.11 [95% CI 2.64−3.66]), non-Hispanic Blacks (4.04 [2.32−7.04]), Asian Pacific Islanders (2.99 [1.75−5.12]), Hispanics (2.37 [1.85−3.04]), and low SES (2.30 [1.89−2.80]). Non-Hispanic Blacks were more likely to present with metastatic cancer in all sites, except for bone, rhabdomyosarcoma, and stomach. Low SES AYAs are more likely to present with metastatic melanoma, bone tumors, soft tissue sarcomas, breast, cervical, lung, and stomach carcinomas. Building on these results, future cancer-specific studies should investigate the connection between sociodemographic risk factors and biological drivers of metastases. This line of research has potential to inform targeted public health and screening efforts to facilitate risk reduction and earlier detection of these deadly diseases.