Categorizing and Harmonizing Natural, Technological, and Socio-Economic Perils Following the Catastrophe Modeling...

Area of Science:

• Risk assessment and catastrophe (CAT) modeling.
• Natural, technological, and socio-economic hazard analysis.

Background:

• Probabilistic hazard and risk assessment literature features diverse modeling strategies for specific perils.
• Catastrophe (CAT) modeling offers a framework for quantifying natural and man-made disasters.
• Peril characteristics lack categorization and harmonization, hindering comparison and emerging risk assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To categorize perils using a standardized hazard pipeline.
• To harmonize peril characteristics for improved risk assessment.
• To establish a framework for understanding and implementing emerging risks.

Main Methods:

• Literature review of over 20 perils across natural, technological, and socio-economic systems.
• Categorization based on the CAT modeling hazard pipeline: event source, size distribution, and intensity footprint.
• Harmonization of hazard processes using energy transfer as a common metric.

Main Results:

• Defined peril categorizations: point/line/area/track/diffuse source; discrete event/continuous flow; spatial diffusion/threshold/sustained propagation.
• Established a universal hazard pipeline applicable to diverse perils.
• Identified energy transfer as the core physical process in the hazard pipeline.

Conclusions:

• A standardized categorization and harmonization framework for perils is essential for effective risk assessment.
• The proposed hazard pipeline and energy metric provide a unified approach to understanding diverse hazards.
• This work facilitates comparison across perils and simplifies the assessment of emerging risks.