Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in patients with...

Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is highly prevalent, prone to metastasis, and has a poor prognosis after metastasis. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a prognostic model to predict the individualized prognosis of patients with metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (mccRCC).

Data of 1790 patients with mccRCC, registered from 2010 to 2015, were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The included patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 1253) and a validation set (n = 537) based on the ratio of 7:3. The univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify the important independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was then constructed to predict cancer specific survival (CSS). The performance of the nomogram was internally validated by using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic curves, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA). We compared the nomogram with the TNM staging system. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was applied to validate the application of the risk stratification system.

Diagnostic age, T-stage, N-stage, bone metastases, brain metastases, liver metastases, lung metastases, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and histological grade were identified as independent predictors of CSS. The C-index of training and validation sets are 0.707 and 0.650 respectively. In the training set, the AUC of CSS predicted by nomogram in patients with mccRCC at 1-, 3- and 5-years were 0.770, 0.758, and 0.757, respectively. And that in the validation set were 0.717, 0.700, and 0.700 respectively. Calibration plots also showed great prediction accuracy. Compared with the TNM staging system, NRI and IDI results showed that the predictive ability of the nomogram was greatly improved, and DCA showed that patients obtained clinical benefits. The risk stratification system can significantly distinguish the patients with different survival risks.

In this study, we developed and validated a nomogram to predict the CSS rate in patients with mccRCC. It showed consistent reliability and clinical applicability. Nomogram may assist clinicians in evaluating the risk factors of patients and formulating an optimal individualized treatment strategy.