The circadian stimulus-oscillator model: Improvements to Kronauer's model of the human circadian pacemaker

Modeling how patterns of light and dark affect circadian phase is important clinically and organizationally (e.g., the military) because circadian disruption can compromise health and performance. Limit-cycle oscillator models in various forms have been used to characterize phase changes to a limited set of light interventions. We approached the analysis of the van der Pol oscillator-based model proposed by Kronauer and colleagues in 1999 and 2000 (Kronauer99) using a well-established framework from experimental psychology whereby the stimulus (S) acts on the organism (O) to produce a response (R). Within that framework, using four independent data sets utilizing calibrated personal light measurements, we conducted a serial analysis of the factors in the Kronauer99 model that could affect prediction accuracy characterized by changes in dim-light melatonin onset. Prediction uncertainty was slightly greater than 1 h for the new data sets using the original Kronauer99 model. The revised model described here reduced prediction uncertainty for these same data sets by roughly half.