Assessing the effects of China's Three-North Shelter Forest Program over 40 years

Forests provide vital ecosystem services such as soil and water conservation, climate regulation, and carbon storage. Large-scale afforestation programs are being attempted in many countries to improve environmental conditions in deteriorated or unfavorable locations. China's Three Northern Protected Forest Program (TNSFP), accounting for 42.40 % of China's total land area, is the world's largest afforestation program to date. The TNSFP has continued providing critical ecosystem services to humans over 73 years (1978-2050) with a total investment of CNY 93.3 billion. To facilitate understanding of the TNSFP's contribution, the effects of the TNSFP for last 43 years were comprehensively evaluated by using integrated review of structured literature, bibliometric analysis, and thematic analysis. We incorporated and expanded the direct ecosystem services evidence of the TNSFP from wind and sand control, soil erosion control and carbon sequestration to indirect economic benefits, e.g. increasing crop yield and promoting economic development. We found that over the past 40 years of TNSFP construction, wind and sand hazards and soil erosion in China's Three-North areas have been effectively controlled, and forest carbon sequestration, grain production and economic output have steadily increased. The ecosystem services provided by the TNSFP are highly consistent with the thrust of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and the TNSFP has contributed to the realization of SDG2, SDG8, SDG13, and SDG15. Although achieving tremendous ecological, economic, and social benefits, the TNSFP still has knowledge gaps in its scientific basis. And the limited local engagement and insufficient investment highly hinder the TNSFP from playing its multiple functions. We suggest several urgent actions and directions to address these limitations. This review could help researchers gain insight into key areas of ecological restoration in the TNSFP, providing a reference for future research in the TNSFP construction in China and other regions of the world embarking on similar journeys.