Predicting dry matter intake in mid-lactation Holstein cows using point-in-time data streams available on dairy farms

Quantifying dry matter intake (DMI) in lactating dairy cows is important for determining feed efficiency; however, there are no methods for economically quantifying individual cow DMI on dairy farms where cows are group-fed. Attempts have been made to model DMI using cow factors, milk production, milk infrared spectra, and behavioral sensors with reasonable success. Other data streams are available on the farm that may contribute to DMI predictions. In this study, our objective was to model DMI with multiple linear regression using data from a single point-in-time that can easily be accessed on-farm. Candidate predictor variables included cow descriptors, milk yield and composition, milk fatty acid profile, and production and efficiency predicting transmitting abilities (PTA). Observations of DMI were obtained from 350 cows across 6 cohorts using individual feed bunks. The cow to bunk ratio was 2:1, with an overall bunk occupation rate of 32% throughout the day. The following models were developed sequentially with milk data obtained from a single morning milking and other data from the same day: model B (production, metabolic body weight, body condition score, lactation category, and week of lactation), model BC [model B + fatty acid (FA) content], model BY (model B + FA yield), model BPE (model B + production and efficiency PTA), model BYP (model BY + production PTA), model BYE (model BY + efficiency PTA), and model BYPE (model BY + production and efficiency PTA). Outcome variables predicted in these models were the DMI on the previous day or current day relative to the morning milk sample. The predictions for DMI on the previous day outperformed current day DMI in every model for which they were both determined. Addition of milk FA and PTA as candidate predictor variable types to the models resulted in enhanced predictive ability, with incremental enhancements when combined. The most robust model (BYPE) included cow descriptors, protein and FA yields, and PTA for milk and residual feed intake. Model BYPE described 21 to 32% more of the variation in DMI (based on concordance correlation coefficient) than when other common DMI models were applied to the same data set. Overall, reasonable performance of models including single point-in-time cow descriptors, milk and FA production, and production and efficiency PTA commonly available to dairy farmers through dairy herd improvement programs offer an opportunity for on-farm prediction of DMI, yet further improvement may be possible.