Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Tobacco Control Strategies in Indonesia

In Indonesia, tobacco smoking is a significant public health problem that continues to grow, with a prevalence among the highest worldwide. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of government-funded varenicline, smoking bans in public places, and an additional 10% tobacco tax in Indonesia.

Markov modeling of Indonesians aged 15 to 84 years was undertaken, with simulated follow-up until age 85 years. Data on demographics, smoking prevalence, and mortality were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Data regarding the efficacy and costs of the 3 interventions were gathered from published sources. Costs and benefits accrued beyond one year were discounted at 3% per annum. The year value of costing data was 2020.

Government-funded varenicline, smoking bans in public places, and an additional 10% tobacco tax were predicted to save 5.5 million, 1.6 million, and 1.7 million years of life, respectively (all discounted). In terms of quality-adjusted life-years, 3 tobacco interventions were predicted to gain 11.9 million, 3.47 million, and 3.78 million in quality-adjusted life-years, respectively. The savings in smoking-related healthcare costs amounted to US $313.8 billion, US $97.5 billion, and US $106 billion, respectively. Hence, from the perspective of the healthcare system, all 3 interventions were cost saving (dominant).

In Indonesia, tobacco control measures are likely to be highly cost-effective and even cost saving from the healthcare system's perspective. These cost savings can be balanced against economic losses that would result from the impact on the sizable Indonesian tobacco industry.