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Related Concept Videos

Steps in Outbreak Investigation01:18

Steps in Outbreak Investigation

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In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
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Causality in Epidemiology01:21

Causality in Epidemiology

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Causality or causation is a fundamental concept in epidemiology, vital for understanding the relationships between various factors and health outcomes. Despite its importance, there's no single, universally accepted definition of causality within the discipline. Drawing from a systematic review, causality in epidemiology encompasses several definitions, including production, necessary and sufficient, sufficient-component, counterfactual, and probabilistic models. Each has its strengths and...
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Pareto Chart00:52

Pareto Chart

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A Pareto chart is a bar graph or a combination of both line and bar graphs. The bar lengths represent the individual values or the frequency, while the lines represent the cumulative total values. In this chart, the longest bars are arranged on the left and the shortest bars on the right, which makes it easier to read and interpret the data. It can also be called a Pareto diagram or Pareto analysis.
The Pareto chart is named after the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, who described the Pareto...
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Types of Biopharmaceutical Studies: Controlled and Non-Controlled Approaches01:23

Types of Biopharmaceutical Studies: Controlled and Non-Controlled Approaches

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Biopharmaceutical studies constitute a vital field aiming to enhance drug delivery methods and refine therapeutic approaches, drawing upon diverse interdisciplinary knowledge. In research methodologies, the choice between controlled and non-controlled studies significantly influences the study's reliability and accuracy.
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Types of Skewness01:09

Types of Skewness

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If the frequency distribution of a data set is more inclined towards smaller or larger values, the distribution is said to be skewed. If data values are skewed to the right, then the distribution is called positively skewed. Conversely, if the plot is skewed to the left, the distribution is called negatively skewed.
For instance, in the middle of a pandemic, the geographical distribution of vaccine coverage may be positively skewed towards populations in the global north countries. However,...
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Limits to Natural Selection01:38

Limits to Natural Selection

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Organisms that are well-adapted to their environment are more likely to survive and reproduce. However, natural selection does not lead to perfectly adapted organisms. Several factors constrain natural selection.
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Aug 25, 2025

Quantification and Whole Genome Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Wastewater and Air Samples
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Quantification and Whole Genome Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Wastewater and Air Samples

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Quantifying the COVID-19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?

Hazhir Rahmandad1, John Sterman1

  • 1MIT Sloan School of Management MIT Room E62-432, 100 Main Street., Cambridge Massachusetts 02142 USA.

System Dynamics Review
|October 17, 2022
PubMed
Summary

COVID-19 eradication is unlikely. Most nations cannot yet tolerate the disease burden without non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) due to Omicron

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • COVID-19 eradication is not feasible, necessitating a "new normal" balancing disease burden and societal restrictions.
  • Declining infection fatality rates are observed due to vaccination, prior infections, improved treatments, and the Omicron variant's reduced severity.
  • Assessing community tolerance for disease risk is crucial for determining the feasibility of lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate biological and behavioral factors influencing COVID-19 risks and responses across 93 countries.
  • To project the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • To evaluate the readiness of nations to coexist with COVID-19 without NPIs.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a detailed mathematical model of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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  • Incorporated data from 93 countries to analyze risk and response factors.
  • Estimated infection fatality rates, transmissibility, and immunity decay.

    • Main Results:

    • Infection fatality rates have significantly decreased.
    • Despite reduced severity, increased Omicron transmissibility and waning immunity cause recurrent waves of infection, hospitalization, and death.
    • Most nations lack the tolerance for deaths to abandon NPIs.

    Conclusions:

    • The emergence of a "new normal" is complicated by repeated COVID-19 outbreaks.
    • Societal tolerance for disease burden remains a key factor in determining the future of NPIs.
    • Continued monitoring and adaptive strategies are necessary to manage COVID-19.