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Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable?

Dvir Chwat1, Chaim I Garfinkel1, Wen Chen2,3

  • 1Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences Hebrew University Jerusalem Israel.

Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres : JGR
|October 17, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Predicting Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events is possible by analyzing precursor conditions. Favorable factors like a preconditioned vortex and Madden-Julian Oscillation activity significantly enhance SSW predictability.

Keywords:
ENSOMJOsubseasonal predictabilitysudden warmings

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Climate Dynamics
  • Meteorology

Background:

  • Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events are significant atmospheric phenomena with far-reaching impacts.
  • Understanding and predicting SSW events is crucial for seasonal forecasting.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the predictability of Northern Hemisphere SSW events using multiple subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models.
  • To identify key precursor factors that influence SSW predictability.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 16 major SSW events since 1998.
  • Evaluation of 10 subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models.
  • Identification of four key factors distinguishing predictable SSWs.

Main Results:

  • A preconditioned vortex, active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), specific Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) phase, and vortex morphology are key predictors.
  • These factors collectively explain 40% of the variability in SSW predictability.
  • Some identified factors have not been previously explored in large-sample SSW studies.

Conclusions:

  • SSW predictability is significantly enhanced by favorable precursor conditions.
  • While individual factors may not reach 95% statistical significance due to sample size, their combined effect is substantial.
  • Future research should incorporate these identified precursors for improved SSW forecasting.