Predicting local persistence/recurrence after radiation therapy for head and neck cancer from PET/CT using a...

Accurate identifying head and neck squamous cell cancer (HNSCC) patients at high risk of local persistence/recurrence (P/R) is of importance for personalized patient management. Here we developed a multi-objective, multi-classifier radiomics model for early HNSCC local P/R prediction based on post-treatment PET/CT scans and clinical data.

We retrospectively identified 328 individuals (69 patients have local P/R) with HNSCC treated with definitive radiation therapy at our institution. The median follow-up from treatment completion to the first surveillance PET/CT imaging was 114 days (range: 82-159 days). Post-treatment PET/CT scans were reviewed and contoured for all patients. For each imaging modality, we extracted 257 radiomic features to build a multi-objective radiomics model with sensitivity, specificity, and feature sparsity as objectives for model training. Multiple representative classifiers were combined to construct the predictive model. The output probabilities of models built with features from various modalities were fused together to make the final prediction.

We built and evaluated three single-modality models and two multi-modality models. The combination of PET, CT, and clinical data in the multi-objective, multi-classifier radiomics model trended towards the best prediction performance, with a sensitivity of 93%, specificity of 83%, accuracy of 85%, and AUC of 0.94.

Our study demonstrates the feasibility of employing a multi-objective, multi-classifier radiomics model with PET/CT radiomic features and clinical data to predict outcomes for patients with HNSCC after radiation therapy. The proposed prediction model shows the potential to detect cancer local P/R early after radiation therapy.