Post-Endoscopy Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Rate in a Tertiary Referral Centre: An Australian Data Linkage Analysis

High-quality gastroscopy is critical for early diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal cancers (UGCs), and assessment of missed cancers may serve as a key quality metric. Using a prospective gastroscopy database and data linkage with the Queensland Cancer Registry, we assessed the risk of developing UGC within 3 years of a cancer-negative gastroscopy at an Australian tertiary centre. Additional aims were to identify factors predictive of missed cancer, perform root cause analyses for missed cancers and assess overall survival.

We identified patients who were diagnosed with UGC within 3 years of undergoing gastroscopy between 2011 and 2016. Non-mucosal cancers, cancers distal to duodenum and patients undergoing surveillance were excluded. Cases diagnosed within 6 months of gastroscopy were defined as detected cancers, while those developing within 6-36 months were defined as missed cancers. Post-endoscopy UGC rate (PEUGIC-3Y) was calculated as ratio of missed over total cancers detected. Demographic, clinical, endoscopic and histologic variables were analysed.

A total of 17,131 gastroscopies were performed for 10,393 patients during the study period. One hundred and twenty-six UGCs were diagnosed, including 120 detected UGCs and 6 missed UGCs. The overall PEUGIC-3Y rate was 4.8% (95% CI 2.1-10.4). The missed UGCs included 3 gastric adenocarcinomas, 2 gastro-oesophageal junction adenocarcinomas and 1 oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. At the preceding 'cancer-negative gastroscopy', no macroscopic abnormalities were detected at the site of future UGC in 5/6 patients. A UGC developed in 2/6 patients despite an apparent adequate examination at index gastroscopy. Age, sex, indication for endoscopy and cancer location or histology were not predictive of missed cases, and survival was comparable between groups.

We demonstrate that the PEUGIC-3Y rate was 4.8% (95% CI 2.1-10.4). The majority of missed cases were adenocarcinomas of the gastro-oesophageal junction or stomach and developed in segments which were found to be normal at index gastroscopy, highlighting the challenges in detecting subtle mucosal lesions in the upper gastrointestinal tract. While overall survival between patients with detected and post-gastroscopy cancers was comparable, these ultimately represent potential missed opportunities for diagnosing an early cancer and underscore the need for quality improvement in gastroscopy.