Temporal instability of partial least squares regressions for estimating leaf photosynthetic traits from...

Partial least squares regression (PLSR) is applied increasingly often to predict plant photosynthesis from reflectance spectra. While its applicability across different areas has been examined in previous studies, its stability across time has yet to be evaluated. In this study, we assessed a series of PLSR models built upon three different band selection approaches (iterative stepwise, genetic algorithm, and uninformative variable elimination), in combination with different spectral transforms (original and first-order derivative spectra), for their stabilities in predicting the maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax) and maximum electron transport rate (Jmax) from hyperspectral reflectance spectra at different temporal scales (seasonal and interannual). The results showed that both photosynthetic parameters can be estimated from leaf hyperspectral reflectance with moderate to good accuracy across different growing stages (R² = 0.45-0.84) and years (R² = 0.37-0.97). We further found that the iterative stepwise selection of informative bands when building PLSR models could greatly improve its predictive capacity compared with that of other PLSR models, especially those based on first-order derivative spectra. However, the selected bands of the models for both photosynthetic parameters were, unfortunately not consistent. Furthermore, we could not have identified any model with fixed spectra performed consistently across different seasonal stages and across different years. However, the blue spectral regions were popularly selected throughout the growing stages and in different years. The results demonstrate that leaf spectra-trait estimation using PLSR models varies with time and thus cast doubt over the use of a specific PLSR model to infer leaf traits across different temporal-spatial contexts. The development of a general applicable PLSR model is still in the works.