Life expectancy changes since COVID-19

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented mortality increases globally.
• Life expectancy has declined worldwide, with varying impacts across countries.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate life expectancy changes in 29 countries from 2020 onwards.
• To attribute these changes to mortality shifts across different age groups.
• To compare the pandemic's impact with historical life expectancy shocks.

Main Methods:

• Life expectancy changes were estimated for 29 countries (Europe, US, Chile) since 2020.
• Attribution analysis linked life expectancy changes to age-specific mortality shifts.
• Statistical correlations were calculated between vaccination uptake and life expectancy deficits.

Main Results:

• Significant divergence in pandemic mortality impacts observed in 2021.
• Western European countries showed recovery, while Eastern Europe and the US experienced sustained deficits.
• Life expectancy deficits in fall/winter 2021 correlated negatively with vaccination uptake across age groups (60+ and <60).
• The age profile of excess mortality shifted younger in 2021 compared to 2020.
• COVID-19 deaths remained the primary driver of life expectancy losses in 2021.

Conclusions:

• Pandemic's impact on life expectancy varied significantly by region and year.
• Vaccination uptake appears crucial in mitigating life expectancy losses.
• The younger age profile of mortality in 2021 highlights evolving pandemic dynamics.