How far are we from robust estimates of plastic litter leakage to the environment?

Litter pollution is a global concern, and identifying sources and pathways is crucial for proposing preventative actions. Existing models of plastic litter leakage to the environment have provided worldwide estimates at a country-based level, but only a few initiatives address subnational scales. Adding relevant parameters and improving models is needed to reduce the limitations of global estimates. However, availability of information, which varies among countries and is critical in the Global South, may preclude such improvements. To understand the potentialities and limitations of subnational estimates of plastic litter leakage to the environment, we reviewed the parameters used in the literature and addressed data usability, considering Brazil as a case study. We gathered data on parameters identified for all 5570 Brazilian municipalities and evaluated their usability considering reliability and temporal and geographic granularity. We identified 51 parameters that are either currently used in models or could improve estimates, including parameters regarding territory, population density, socioeconomic condition, and solid waste generation, composition, collection, and final destination, selective waste collection, recycling, and hydrology. Only 29.4% of parameters were linked to data sources with good or very good usability, while most of them presented average usability (45.1%) and 7.8% were not linked to any data source. This panorama of low data usability reveals uncertainties and explicit difficulties of estimating plastic litter leakage to the environment, including mobilization from the terrestrial environment to the ocean. The Brazilian scenario reflects current data availability conditions and the difficulties of countries in the Global South to robustly understand plastic litter leakage and face land-based sources of marine litter.