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Transmission dynamics of disease spreading in multilayer networks with mass media
Yifei Guo1, Lilan Tu1, Han Shen1
1Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Systems Science in Metallurgical Process, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, Hubei, China and College of Science, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, Hubei, China.
Abstract:
On the basis of existing disease spreading research, in this paper we propose a Hesitant-Taken-Unaware-Aware-Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Symptomatic-Recovered (HTUA-SI^{a}I^{s}R) model with mass media in a two-layer network, which consists of a virtual communication layer and a physical contact layer. Based on the UAU-SIR model, we additionally consider three practical factors, including whether individuals will disseminate information or not, the influence of unaware individuals on aware individuals, and the direct recovery of asymptomatic infected individuals. Based on the microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), for the proposed HTUA-SI^{a}I^{s}R model, MMCA equations are generated and the analytical expression of the epidemic threshold is obtained. Compared with Monte Carlo techniques, numerical simulations show the feasibility and effectiveness of the MMCA equations, as well as the HTUA-SI^{a}I^{s}R model theoretically. Meanwhile, extensive simulations demonstrate that the acceleration of the awareness dissemination in the virtual communication layer can effectively block the epidemic spreading and raise the epidemic threshold. However, under certain conditions, the increasing of T-state individuals will increase the U-state individuals because the T-state and U-state individuals can influence the A-state individuals losing their awareness of protection, and then promote the epidemic spreading and decrease the epidemic threshold. In addition, reducing asymptomatic infections can hinder the epidemic spreading. But, when the recovery rate of asymptomatic infections is greater than that of symptomatic infections, decreasing the tendency of individuals acquiring asymptomatic infections will lower the epidemic threshold.
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