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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Influence of age as a continuous variable on the prognosis of patients with pT1-2N1 breast cancer
Xu-Ran Zhao1, Yu Tang1, Hong-Fen Wu2
1Department of Radiation Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100021, China.
Purpose:
To assess the influence of age as a continuous variable on the prognosis of pT1-2N1 breast cancer and examine its decision-making value for postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT).
Methods:
We retrospectively evaluated 5438 patients with pT1-2N1 breast cancer after mastectomy in 11 hospitals. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model with penalized splines was used to examine the relationship between age and oncologic outcomes.
Results:
The median follow-up was 67.0 months. After adjustments for confounding characteristics, nonsignificant downward trend in locoregional recurrence (LRR) risk was observed with increasing age (P-non-linear association = 0.640; P-linear association = 0.078). A significant non-linear association was found between age and disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) (P-non-linear association <0.05; P-linear association >0.05, respectively). The DFS and OS exhibited U-shaped relationships, with the hazard ratios (HRs), reaching a nadir at 50 years old. A decreased risk of LRR with PMRT vs. no PMRT (HR = 0.304, 95% CI: 0.204-0.454) was maintained in all ages. The HR of PMRT vs. no PMRT for DFS and OS gradually increased with age. In patients ≤50 years old, PMRT was independently associated with favorable LRR, DFS, and OS, all P < 0.05). In patients >50 years old, PMRT was independently associated with reduced LRR (P = 0.004), but had no effect on DFS or OS.
Conclusions:
Age was an independent prognostic factor for pT1-2N1 breast cancer; PMRT provided survival benefits for patients ≤50 years old, but not for patients >50 years old.
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