Near-term climate risks and solar radiation modification: a roadmap approach for physical sciences research

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Environmental Policy
• Risk Management

Background:

• Escalating climate change impacts and risks necessitate urgent action, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions.
• Recent National Academies studies recommend focusing research on managing climate risks and exploring sunlight reflection modification (SRM).

Purpose of the Study:

• Propose a research roadmap for robust scientific assessment of SRM to address near-term climate risks.
• Evaluate SRM as a potential rapid, temporary measure to mitigate catastrophic climate change impacts, not as a replacement for GHG mitigation.

Main Methods:

• Develop a roadmap for planning, coordinating, and delivering SRM research.
• Assess SRM within the context of climate hazard risks up to 2050.
• Compare climate change trajectories against potential SRM implementation scenarios.

Main Results:

• The proposed approach facilitates a scientific assessment of SRM's potential to reduce near-term climate risks.
• Research aims to inform decisions by weighing climate change impacts against possible SRM interventions.
• Open research and accessible resources promote transparency, stakeholder participation, and informed decision-making.

Conclusions:

• SRM research should be conducted openly to ensure transparency and inform diverse stakeholders.
• SRM is a potential supplementary strategy for climate risk reduction, not a substitute for emissions control.
• A structured research approach is crucial for evaluating SRM's role in managing climate hazards through 2050.