Neck circumference for predicting the occurrence of future cardiovascular events: A 7.6-year longitudinal study

This study aimed to investigate whether neck circumference (NC) could be used to predict future cardiovascular (CV) events in a community-based Chinese cohort.

We enrolled 1435 participants aged 50-80 years (men, 43.62%) from communities in Shanghai. High NC was defined as NC ≥ 38.5 cm in men and NC ≥ 34.5 cm in women. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were performed to explore the association between NC and CV events. During a mean follow-up period of 7.6 years, 148 CV events (10.31%) occurred. The incidence of CV events was higher in men than in women (83 (13.26%) vs. 65 (8.03%), P = 0.002). Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analysis showed that for every 1-SD increase in NC in the whole population, the hazard ratio (HR) of CV events was 1.45 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-1.83). The dose-response association between NC and CV events was significant in men (HR, 1.37, 95% CI, 1.10-1.71) but not in women (HR, 1.19, 95% CI, 0.94-1.52). In comparison with participants showing low baseline NC, those with high baseline NC showed a significantly higher risk of CV events (HR, 1.59, 95% CI, 1.14-2.22). Further stratified by sex, the positive association remained significant in men (HR, 1.90, 95% CI, 1.21-2.98) but not in women (HR, 1.25, 95% CI, 0.75-2.07).

NC was significantly associated with the risk of future CV events in middle-aged and elderly populations in the community and was a better predictor in men.