Model Building in Forensic Psychiatry: A Machine Learning Approach to Screening Offender Patients with SSD

Today's extensive availability of medical data enables the development of predictive models, but this requires suitable statistical methods, such as machine learning (ML). Especially in forensic psychiatry, a complex and cost-intensive field with risk assessments and predictions of treatment outcomes as central tasks, there is a need for such predictive tools, for example, to anticipate complex treatment courses and to be able to offer appropriate therapy on an individualized basis. This study aimed to develop a first basic model for the anticipation of adverse treatment courses based on prior compulsory admission and/or conviction as simple and easily objectifiable parameters in offender patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder (SSD). With a balanced accuracy of 67% and an AUC of 0.72, gradient boosting proved to be the optimal ML algorithm. Antisocial behavior, physical violence against staff, rule breaking, hyperactivity, delusions of grandeur, fewer feelings of guilt, the need for compulsory isolation, cannabis abuse/dependence, a higher dose of antipsychotics (measured by the olanzapine half-life) and an unfavorable legal prognosis emerged as the ten most influential variables out of a dataset with 209 parameters. Our findings could demonstrate an example of the use of ML in the development of an easy-to-use predictive model based on few objectifiable factors.