Diversification dynamics in the Neotropics through time, clades, and biogeographic regions

The origins and evolution of the outstanding Neotropical biodiversity are a matter of intense debate. A comprehensive understanding is hindered by the lack of deep-time comparative data across wide phylogenetic and ecological contexts. Here, we quantify the prevailing diversification trajectories and drivers of Neotropical diversification in a sample of 150 phylogenies (12,512 species) of seed plants and tetrapods, and assess their variation across Neotropical regions and taxa. Analyses indicate that Neotropical diversity has mostly expanded through time (70% of the clades), while scenarios of saturated and declining diversity account for 21% and 9% of Neotropical diversity, respectively. Five biogeographic areas are identified as distinctive units of long-term Neotropical evolution, including Pan-Amazonia, the Dry Diagonal, and Bahama-Antilles. Diversification dynamics do not differ across these areas, suggesting no geographic structure in long-term Neotropical diversification. In contrast, diversification dynamics differ across taxa: plant diversity mostly expanded through time (88%), while a substantial fraction (43%) of tetrapod diversity accumulated at a slower pace or declined towards the present. These opposite evolutionary patterns may reflect different capacities for plants and tetrapods to cope with past climate changes.