Stability and expression of SARS-CoV-2 spike-protein mutations

Protein fold stability likely plays a role in SARS-CoV-2 S-protein evolution, together with ACE2 binding and antibody evasion. While few thermodynamic stability data are available for S-protein mutants, many systematic experimental data exist for their expression. In this paper, we explore whether such expression levels relate to the thermodynamic stability of the mutants. We studied mutation-induced SARS-CoV-2 S-protein fold stability, as computed by three very distinct methods and eight different protein structures to account for method- and structure-dependencies. For all methods and structures used (24 comparisons), computed stability changes correlate significantly (99% confidence level) with experimental yeast expression from the literature, such that higher expression is associated with relatively higher fold stability. Also significant, albeit weaker, correlations were seen between stability and ACE2 binding effects. The effect of thermodynamic fold stability may be direct or a correlate of amino acid or site properties, notably the solvent exposure of the site. Correlation between computed stability and experimental expression and ACE2 binding suggests that functional properties of the SARS-CoV-2 S-protein mutant space are largely determined by a few simple features, due to underlying correlations. Our study lends promise to the development of computational tools that may ideally aid in understanding and predicting SARS-CoV-2 S-protein evolution.