National trends in pediatric firearm and automobile fatalities

Successful public health policies and injury prevention efforts have reduced pediatric automobile fatalities across the United States. In 2019, firearm injuries exceeded motor vehicle crashes (MVC) as the leading cause of childhood death in Colorado. We sought to determine if similar trends exist nationally and if state gun laws impact firearm injury fatality rates.

Annual pediatric (≤19 years-old) fatality rates for firearm injuries and MVCs were obtained from the CDC WONDER database (1999-2020). State gun law scores were based on the 2014-2020 Gifford's Annual Gun Law Scorecard and strength was categorized by letter grades A-F. Poisson generalized linear mixed models were used to model fatality rates. Rates were estimated for multiple timepoints and compared between grade levels.

In 1999, the national pediatric fatality rate for MVCs was 248% higher than firearm injuries (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.25-2.73, p<0.0001). By 2020, the fatality rate for MVCs was 16% lower than that of firearm injuries (IRR 95% CI: 0.75- 0.93, p = 0.0014). For each increase in letter grade for gun law strength there was an 18% reduction in the firearm fatality rate (IRR 95%CI: 0.78-0.86, p<0.0001). States with the strongest gun laws (A) had a 55% lower firearm fatality rate compared to those with the weakest laws (F).

Firearm injuries are the leading cause of death in pediatric patients across the United States. State gun law strength has a significant impact on pediatric firearm injury fatality rates. New public health policies, political action, media attention and safer guns are urgently needed to curb this national crisis.

Level III, retrospective.