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Predicting COVID-19 prognosis in the ICU remained challenging: external validation in a multinational regional cohort

Daniek A M Meijs1, Sander M J van Kuijk2, Laure Wynants3

  • 1Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Maastricht University Medical Centre (Maastricht UMC+), Maastricht, The Netherlands; Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laurentius Ziekenhuis, Roermond, The Netherlands; Cardiovascular Research Institute Maastricht (CARIM), Maastricht, The Netherlands.

Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
|October 29, 2022
PubMed

Insights

External validation of COVID-19 prognostic models in the Euregio Intensive Care COVID cohort revealed that only two of nine models demonstrated adequate performance. Better models are needed for future pandemics to aid ICU admission decisions.

Area of Science:

  • Critical Care Medicine
  • Epidemiology
  • Health Informatics

Background:

  • Numerous prognostic models for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been developed.
  • External validation is crucial before implementing these models in intensive care units (ICUs).

Conclusions:

  • Only two of the nine externally validated prognostic models exhibited reasonable discrimination and moderate calibration in the EICC cohort.
  • There is a need for improved prognostic models utilizing routine data to support ICU admission decisions during future pandemics.
Abstract

Keywords:
COVID-19Critical careIntensive care unitPredictionPrognosisSARS-CoV-2

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