Why doesn't Ebola virus cause pandemics like SARS-CoV-2?

Area of Science:

• Biophysics
• Virology
• Thermodynamics

Background:

• Ebola virus is a highly virulent pathogen responsible for severe hemorrhagic fever.
• Despite its danger, Ebola virus has not caused widespread pandemics, unlike other viruses such as SARS-CoV-2.
• Understanding the underlying biophysical and thermodynamic factors of virus-host interactions is crucial for explaining these epidemiological differences.

Purpose of the Study:

• To elucidate the biothermodynamic background of Ebola virus pathogenesis and replication.
• To determine the empirical formula and thermodynamic properties of Ebola virus biosynthesis and binding.
• To compare these properties with SARS-CoV-2 to explain the differing pandemic potentials.

Main Methods:

• Development of a mechanistic biophysical model focusing on virus-host interactions.
• Calculation of the empirical formula for Ebola virus.
• Determination of thermodynamic parameters including Gibbs energy of biosynthesis and binding constants.

Main Results:

• The empirical formula for Ebola virus was determined as CH_1.569O_0.3281N_0.2786P_0.00173S_0.00258.
• The standard Gibbs energy of biosynthesis for the Ebola virus nucleocapsid was calculated as -151.59 kJ/C-mol.
• Thermodynamic data indicate distinct differences in virus-host interactions and replication driving forces compared to SARS-CoV-2.

Conclusions:

• The unique biothermodynamic properties of Ebola virus limit its spread, preventing global pandemics.
• These findings provide a mechanistic explanation for why Ebola remains endemic while SARS-CoV-2 became pandemic.
• The study highlights the importance of biophysical and thermodynamic principles in understanding viral disease dynamics.