Investigating Leptospira dynamics in a multi-host community using an agent-based modelling approach
Aniruddha V Belsare1, Matthew E Gompper2, Meghan Mason3
1Department of Biology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
|October 31, 2022
Summary
Leptospirosis outbreaks are a growing concern in urban slums. Our agent-based model shows rodents are key to spreading leptospirosis strains, while dogs help distribute them, informing targeted control strategies.
Area of Science:
- One Health
- Epidemiology
- Computational Biology
Background:
- Leptospirosis is a neglected bacterial zoonosis, posing a significant global public health challenge, particularly in impoverished urban settings.
- Current prevention strategies are limited by infrastructure deficiencies and difficulties in implementing sanitation and hygiene in marginalized communities.
- Urban expansion exacerbates leptospirosis risk, necessitating a deeper understanding of transmission dynamics in high-density environments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate Leptospira transmission dynamics in a simulated high-density community.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of alternate interventions for leptospirosis control.
- To assess the zoonotic transmission risk of leptospirosis in vulnerable populations.
Main Methods:
- Development of the agent-based model MHMSLeptoDy simulating rodents, dogs, and humans with two Leptospira strains.
- In silico virtual explorations to analyze transmission pathways and intervention impacts.
- Quantitative evaluation of nuanced intervention strategies for leptospirosis control.
Main Results:
- Rodents are identified as the primary source of both rodent-adapted and dog-adapted Leptospira strains in the environment.
- Dogs play a crucial role in the environmental dissemination of the rodent-adapted Leptospira strain.
- The MHMSLeptoDy model effectively evaluates alternate control strategies and zoonotic transmission risks.
Conclusions:
- MHMSLeptoDy provides a sophisticated tool for quantitatively assessing leptospirosis control interventions.
- Understanding host-pathogen dynamics in urban slums is critical for designing effective, locally relevant control programs.
- Targeted interventions informed by modeling can help mitigate leptospirosis outbreaks in high-risk communities.
Related Concept Videos
01:18Steps in Outbreak Investigation
171
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
171
01:30Bacterial Phylum Spirochaetes
76
Spirochetes, unique bacteria in the phylum Spirochaetes, are gram-negative, motile, tightly coiled, slender, and flexible. They inhabit aquatic sediments and animals, with some causing diseases like syphilis. Spirochetes are classified into eight genera based on habitat, pathogenicity, phylogeny, and characteristics.Their distinctive motility arises from endoflagella, located within the cell’s periplasm. These endoflagella anchor at the cell poles and extend along the cell length, encased...
76
01:06Model Approaches for Pharmacokinetic Data: Distributed Parameter Models
118
Pharmacokinetic models are mathematical constructs that represent and predict the time course of drug concentrations in the body, providing meaningful pharmacokinetic parameters. These models are categorized into compartment, physiological, and distributed parameter models.
The distributed parameter models are specifically designed to account for variations and differences in some drug classes. This model is particularly useful for assessing regional concentrations of anticancer or...
The distributed parameter models are specifically designed to account for variations and differences in some drug classes. This model is particularly useful for assessing regional concentrations of anticancer or...
118
01:23Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
79
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
79