Qualitative Estimation of Protein-Ligand Complex Stability through Thermal Titration Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The prediction of ligand efficacy has long been linked to thermodynamic properties such as the equilibrium dissociation constant, which considers both the association and the dissociation rates of a defined protein-ligand complex. In the last 15 years, there has been a paradigm shift, with an increased interest in the determination of kinetic properties such as the drug-target residence time since they better correlate with ligand efficacy compared to other parameters. In this article, we present thermal titration molecular dynamics (TTMD), an alternative computational method that combines a series of molecular dynamics simulations performed at progressively increasing temperatures with a scoring function based on protein-ligand interaction fingerprints for the qualitative estimation of protein-ligand-binding stability. The protocol has been applied to four different pharmaceutically relevant test cases, including protein kinase CK1δ, protein kinase CK2, pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase 2, and SARS-CoV-2 main protease, on a variety of ligands with different sizes, structures, and experimentally determined affinity values. In all four cases, TTMD was successfully able to distinguish between high-affinity compounds (low nanomolar range) and low-affinity ones (micromolar), proving to be a useful screening tool for the prioritization of compounds in a drug discovery campaign.